Statistical Model Checking of the Keynes+Schumpeter Model: A Transient Sensitivity Analysis of a Macroeconomic ABM

Jun 1, 2026·
Stefano Blando
Stefano Blando
,
Giorgio Fagiolo
,
Mauro Napoletano
,
Tania Treibich
,
Andrea Vandin
· 0 min read
Abstract
Agent-based macroeconomic models, such as the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S) framework, integrate innovation-driven Schumpeterian growth with Keynesian aggregate demand dynamics. However, formal sensitivity analysis in such high-dimensional stochastic systems remains computationally demanding and methodologically fragmented. In this paper, we apply Statistical Model Checking (SMC) via MultiVeStA to perform a systematic, transient sensitivity analysis of the K+S model. By evaluating transient probabilistic properties across financial, structural, and heuristic parameter spaces, we establish statistical confidence intervals for key macroeconomic observables, including output growth and unemployment trajectories.
Type
Publication
arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.10447 (journal version in preparation)
publications
Agent-Based Modeling Macroeconomics Keynes+Schumpeter Model Statistical Model Checking MultiVeStA Sensitivity Analysis
Stefano Blando
Authors
Stefano Blando (he/him)
PhD Student in Artificial Intelligence
Stefano Blando is a PhD student in the National PhD Program in Artificial Intelligence at Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna and the University of Pisa. His research lies at the intersection of AI, agent-based modeling, and economics. He studies adaptive multi-agent systems, differentiable agent-based models, LLM-based generative agents, and robust quantitative methods for financial and socio-economic data.