Statistical model checking of the Island Model: an established economic agent-based model of endogenous growth
Stefano Blando, Giorgio Fagiolo, Daniele Giachini, Andrea Vandin, Ernest Ivanaj
Cite this conference paper
@inproceedings{blando2026islandsmc,
title={Statistical model checking of the Island Model: an established economic agent-based model of endogenous growth},
author={Blando, Stefano and Fagiolo, Giorgio and Giachini, Daniele and Vandin, Andrea and Ivanaj, Ernest},
booktitle={MARS @ ETAPS 2026},
year={2026},
note={Accepted paper, presented in Turin, Italy on April 12, 2026}
}Abstract
Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular MultiVeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models.