Statistical Model Checking of the Keynes+Schumpeter Model: A Transient Sensitivity Analysis of a Macroeconomic ABM

Stefano Blando; Giorgio Fagiolo; Mauro Napoletano; Tania Treibich; Andrea Vandin

Stefano Blando, Giorgio Fagiolo, Mauro Napoletano, Tania Treibich, Andrea Vandin

arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.10447 (journal version in preparation)

Cite this article generated from arXiv

@misc{blando2026statistical,
  title = {Statistical Model Checking of the Keynes+Schumpeter Model: A Transient Sensitivity Analysis of a Macroeconomic ABM},
  author = {Blando, Stefano and Fagiolo, Giorgio and Napoletano, Mauro and Treibich, Tania and Vandin, Andrea},
  year = {2026},
  eprint = {2605.10447},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  primaryClass = {econ.GN},
  note = {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.10447 (journal version in preparation)}
}

Abstract

Agent-based macroeconomic models, such as the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S) framework, integrate innovation-driven Schumpeterian growth with Keynesian aggregate demand dynamics. However, formal sensitivity analysis in such high-dimensional stochastic systems remains computationally demanding and methodologically fragmented. In this paper, we apply Statistical Model Checking (SMC) via MultiVeStA to perform a systematic, transient sensitivity analysis of the K+S model. By evaluating transient probabilistic properties across financial, structural, and heuristic parameter spaces, we establish statistical confidence intervals for key macroeconomic observables, including output growth and unemployment trajectories.